Skip Navigation
 
 

Prof. Michael Towle Predictions for 2012 Election


-Michael Towle/Professor of Political Science

If you pay attention to talkshow hosts, talking heads and water cooler chat, you have certainly heard the buzz that this Presidential Election will be a close one. But this time conventional wisdom could be wrong, because there are often last-minute shifts in the electorate to one side or the other. While I expect a close election too, I would not be surprised to see some unexpected shifting from the final polls.

Nonetheless, based on my state-by-state predictions, President Barack Obama will be re-elected with a total of 303 electoral votes. Governor Mitt Romney will have 235 electoral votes. 

I have been saying for some time that this year was a prime year to have one winner in the popular vote (Governor Romney) and another in the Electoral College (President Obama). Hurricane Sandy has added to that possibility, simply because the states most severely affected will be voting for Obama. Those states will still vote for President Obama, but any reduced turnout will affect his popular vote numbers more. Predicting the popular vote is much harder than predicting the Electoral College. But, just for fun, I will say that President Obama receives 49.4% of the popular vote while Governor Romney receives 49.5%.

My Summary of 2012 Prediction

Obama 303 Electoral Votes

Romney 235 Electoral Vote

Senate:

52 Democrats
2 Independents who will caucus with Dems
46 Republicans

House:

234 Republicans
201 Democrats

For the Senate, I make the following prediction. The current make-up of the Senate is 53 Democrats (or those who caucus with the party) and 47 Republicans. I am predicting a one seat  total shift to the Democrats, 54 - 46. 

For the House, the current make-up is 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. It is common that after an election where one party gains a great number of seats, like the Republicans did in 2010, it will lose a few of those gains in the following election. That’s what I am expecting, but not enough to make much of a difference in D.C. I predict a Democratic gain of 6 seats.

State-by-State Electoral College Predictions

Alabama (9)         

Romney

Alaska (3)                      

Romney

Arizona (11)           

Romney

Arkansas (6)             

Romney

California (55)              

Obama

Colorado (9)              

Obama

Connecticut (7)          

Obama

Delaware (3)              

Obama

D.C.  (3)          

Obama

Florida (29)        

Romney

Georgia (16)         

Romney

Hawaii (4)        

Obama

Idaho (4)           

Romney

Illinois (20)          

Obama

Indiana (11)          

Romney

Iowa (6)           

Obama

Kansas  (6)           

Romney

Kentucky (8)      

Romney

Louisiana (8)       

Romney

Maine (4)          

Obama

Maryland (10)        

Obama

Massachusetts (11)   

Obama

Michigan (11)

Obama

Minnesota (10)        

Obama

Mississippi (6)            

Romney

Missouri (10)        

Romney

Montana (3)       

Romney

Nebraska (5)        

Romney

Nevada (6)           

Obama

New Hampshire (4)        

Obama

New Jersey (14)        

Obama

New Mexico (5)           

Obama

New York (29)        

Obama

North Carolina (15)          

Romney

North Dakota (3)         

Romney

Ohio (18)            

Obama

Oklahoma (7)               

Romney

Oregon (7)        

Obama

Pennsylvania (20)             

Obama

Rhode Island (4)      

Obama

South Carolina (9)       

Romney

South Dakota (3)         

Romney

Tennessee (11)            

Romney

Texas (38)           

Romney

Utah (6)             

Romney

Vermont (3)          

Obama

Virginia (13)                    

Obama

Washington (12)             

Obama

West Virginia (5)            

Romney

Wisconsin (10)           

Obama

Wyoming (3)        

Romney

 
16300 Old Emmitsburg Road | Emmitsburg, MD 21727
Map & Directions | admissions@msmary.edu | 301-447-6122
Frederick Campus | 5350 Spectrum Drive | Frederick, MD 21703
Map & Directions | inquiry@msmary.edu | 301-682-8315